Is 10 Points Enough?
McCain (and especially Palin) have been running an extremely dirty campaign the past few weeks trying to scare rural whites. The right-wing talk “pundits” have said some extremely ugly things (Limbaugh even claiming that Obama will train black children to hate America if he becomes President) and shown a very dark side of our country.
As I was reading the article below, I began thinking about what may happen if Obama should lose. Yes, there will be a lot of disappointment, but it is not like we have not seen setbacks before.
If Obama loses, we have no other choice but to - once again - pick up the pieces and press on. We can’t cry about it. It will only show that we have more work to do before this can happen.
Some have said that they will leave the country if McCain wins. I say to them: Have a nice trip, because the rest of us do not have that option. Besides, where else could this candidacy have happened besides America? This has been historic ALREADY and my grandparents would be proud RIGHT NOW. When I go to the polls on November 4th, I plan to go on their behalf. I have been blessed to see history that they could only have dreamed of. It is my ardent hope that we can show the world that we have moved into a better era as a country.
But, when/if the polls tighten, will it actually be a LEAD for McCain? This is why we need to encourage all of our friends and neighbors that support Obama to get to the polls especially here in Virginia. Each of us must do our part…
For supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama it is a nightmare scenario—his apparent lead in the battle for the White House suddenly evaporates on Election Day. The cause? Race.
As Republican rival John McCain celebrates victory, it emerges that a small but decisive percentage of white voters who had declared to opinion pollsters they supported Obama actually chose differently in the privacy of the ballot booth.
With opinion surveys making Obama the favorite over McCain less than three weeks before the November 4 election, attention has turned to the question of how many white Americans might be lying to pollsters about their willingness to vote for a black president.
The phenomenon is known as the “Bradley effect,” after Tom Bradley, an African American who narrowly lost the 1982 California governor’s election despite leading in polls.
His defeat surprised observers who concluded many white voters had not been honest about their intentions. Ever since, pollsters have tried to factor in the Bradley effect in elections featuring black candidates.
[...]
Analysts counter that since the 1970s, surveys have shown a sharp decline in the number of voters who say they would not vote for an African American for president.
Recent surveys have indicated that Obama’s race is less of an impediment to voters than McCain’s age. At 72, McCain would be the oldest person to assume the U.S. presidency.
FACTORING IN RACE
The analysts also note that few people who are turned off by a black candidate’s race would likely vote Democrat anyway.
[...]
Politicians rarely address it directly and both the Obama and McCain campaigns downplay the idea the some whites might not be speaking honestly about their voting plans.
The diversity of the U.S. electorate makes it hard to quantify the phenomenon, pollsters say. An older voter in South Florida may be of the same race as a young union member in Virginia or a businesswoman in Colorado but share little else.
The Democratic primaries in which voters in the states picked the party’s presidential candidate painted a mixed picture of the potential for a Bradley effect. In some states, Obama got fewer white votes than expected but in South Carolina and elsewhere it was the opposite.
Commentator Earl Ofari Hutchinson said there was a potential for the Bradley effect to be decisive, and that Obama might need a 10 percent lead in opinion polls to be sure of overcoming it.
[...]
Pollster John Zogby said he took the prospect of overstating white support for Obama very seriously.
Zogby tries to factor any potential Bradley effect into his polling but said he believes it will be negligible, in part because estimates of Obama’s support had proved accurate during the primaries.
[...]
I guess we will find out on November 5th
Does Obama love America and what it stands for? It does not take very much research to find out about the Alliances and his supporters… W. Ayres, B. Dohrn, J. Wright, ACORN, AAAN, R. Odinga, Pfleger, T. Rezco, M. Davis (CPUSA), L. Farrakhan, D. Ortega,Communist Party Illinois, Socialist Party USA, M. Shabazz, The Socialist Party USA, CPUSA…
This list says all I need to know about Obama. He is well represented by the Marxists, Communists and Socialists everywhere. All of these also have another thing in common - they hate America. Search each name or organization and see what you come up with.
I do not like McCain, but I know he loves and believes in America.
Thanks for your post
Here is an example of what you can find
http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/oct/12/obamas-kenya-ghosts/
Salaam,
I believe Obama will win. I think if not for the economy, race might play a bigger role on election day. But with the economy the way it is right now, I really think that’s going to overshadow everything else, and the poll predictions will hold.
Although, I think in ‘04 the polls were predicting a Kerry win, and that lead disappeared on election day. But if I recall correctly, I don’t think Kerry had as big of a lead as Obama does now.
If McCain/Palin win, I will be sick. I honestly don’t think it’ll happen…
Obama cannot win it is plain and simple. The Republicans will make a big push in the next couple of weeks and energize their base with scare tactics.
Obama will not have enough white support. 2020 would be a great time to have a black president when the white percentage of the population hovers around 65%.
I think that the McCain will win key states such as Florida, Ohio, Pennslyvannia, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina. The numbers do not add up.
He gave a good try and his running is an historical accomoplishment nonetheless.
Salaam
Why the pessimism?
We thought that it was impossible( myself included) for Obama to get this far. That in itself is a major accomplishment. There have been Black people like Jessie Jackson( couldn’t take him seriously) and Alan Keyes( him either)didn’t even make it to first base. Even Joe Lieberman wasn’t able to do it and he’s Jewish. Obama was able to accomplish what they didn’t
Obama not only has the Black support, but he as a considerable amount of White and other support. Iowa was the very first mostly White state that put Obama in the driver’s seat followed by Vermont–the Whitest state in the US). Political analysts feel that some of those same states could be Obama territory( North Carolina, Colorado , and VIrginia) and they could very well be his turfs.
There have been many doubts that has become many firsts: Condeleeza Rice, Colin Powell, Nancy Pelosi,etc no matter what the race, were pioneers in their positions. As the saying goes” there’s a reason for the season”.Politically, Obama has done what no other minority has done. If he’s made this far, there may be a good reason for this and for all we know, it could be his calling to the president of the United States.
Cards has been stacked against people and they have overcame the odds. Never say never because Obama could be the first to do so.
Moondance30,
And voters like me should vote for a guy who at one point, didn’t vote for Dr. Kings B-Day to be a holiday,—– by his own admission. Sarah isn’t that much better. Some blog/ news sources are saying that she has racist tendencies about herself. Nope! it’s nothing that I’m making up. Now you try to pull up a couple of facts on her and see will you get the same thing because I have. Now why should I put my vote in people like them?
Granted McCain and Palin are REAL bad news, but does any Muslim think that Obama–a murtadd–is “all that”!?! Whomever one votes (if they bother to vote), the canidate is OWNED by the people who print the money. The country (and the global economy) is run by the international banking interests. The politicians are merely frontmen for the people who have the REAL MONEY (or monopoly money–depending on how you look at it). So the color or the party of the person in office means little in th bigger picture–especially, since the core matters of the power structure are NEVER ADDRESSED by those in office.
Given how bad things are, it should be pretty embarassing to have a (half) black president in office when the US takes the economic plunge it looks like it is heading to. An honest assessment is not that Obama is a great leader, but that he is merely the lesser of two evils (although some may wish to argue that, i won’t). Things are going to get steadily worse in the country. There is no preventing that. Americans simply cannot compete in a global economy. No president–short of a Pat Buchanan–is going to even raise a peep about the structure (or who’s behind it) of the global economy, and the simple fact that anything other than economic isolation means the end of the American middle class and the end of American sovereignty.
@ Ron
I agree with you–i don’t know where these folks are doing their polling. It seems that there are simply tooooooo many (racist) white people in the country for Obama to get elected. It COULD happen, but i am not as optimistic as some here. I think a lot of the people here spend most of their lives in urban or suburban America–and perhaps a part of it at a small university town for college–and don’t realize how racist and hick MOST of America is.
Anyway, if Obama does get elected, how long do folks think it will before Cletus, home from Iraq, or Billy Bob getting laid off at the Walmart will attempt to bust a few caps off at Obama Hussein? This guy is going to have to drive around in a “pope-mobile”, fo’ dey gunna be A LOT OF ANGRY WHITE FOLKS–with guns (and firearm training)–ticked off ’cause dey dun got demselves a nigr@ prezeedent.
moondance30,
a) how is this massive bailout of wall st not socialist and wealth distribution?
b) how is the government buying into banks not socialist and wealth distribution?
c) how is McCain proposal for the governement to buy up morgages not socialist and wealth distribution?
No, I don’t want to pay for corporate welfare!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I worked and brought my home cash, why do my taxes have the go support those who tried to exploit the system and failed?
I have more respect for someone who served in the military and pays taxes in a country who says they hate the government, than someone whose never served or who have their money in offshore tax shelters.
Hmmm! Respect for someone serving in the military, well Obama said he wanted to… but he NEVER JOINED (talk talk talk). See link
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2700555/Barack-Obama-wanted-to-join-the-US-military.html
Don’t remember saying anything about racism -
Don’t remember saying anything about wealth distribution (I guess socialism), such as, to qoute Obama. “I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.”
Our taxes support many, many many failed programs - most of which are socialist in nature. Let’s see, government (primarily democrats), pushed institutions to loan to those who cannot repay (everyone needs the American Dream and own a home - socialism) PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING SEPT. 30, 1999 NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9c0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all please note the comment that ‘If they fail, (fannie and freddie) the government will have to step up and bail them out the way it stepped up and bailed out the thrift industry.” This was witten about the DEMOCRATIC CLINTON ADMISISTRATION!!
Change we need - until all republicans and democrats are voted out of office, it will be business as usual.
Swathmoor,
I’m a Black suburbanite and have spent a considerable amount of time in a small town–which is majority White. The mistake that is assumed about it is that the are far removed from the world which is not always the truth.
I may have been been raised from the outskirts, but I wasn’t racially sheltered .My folks taught me about the good and bad sides of if It race. Just as much as I was exposed to the good sides of race, I can also remember a day where I experienced the ugliness of it . I had a White teacher who decided that she was going to take her anger out on her class( who were multiracial.though she wasn’t the racist). I became a victim of her rage when she broke a ruler behind my back. She didn’t like the idea of me crying in her class ( I didn’t complete an in class assignment). The Principal who was white ,thought that I wronged the teacher and deserved punishment. Eventually, the teacher was removed, only because a mom, who was White, came to him with a gun and threatened to blow his brains out He also said that he wanted to be transferred to another school because he didn’t want to be around Black kids.. I was in the second grade when it happened.
As a Black suburbanite, I would also experience other forms of racial injustice: 1) Being called the “n’ word going to North Augusta , South Carolina 2) Going from Penn State to some small town PA and being reminded that you’re AA when the cashier properly attended to his White customers, while acting like your money is filthy( and of course I didn’t want to purposely put my money in that racist pocket). I’m AA and long as I’m a minority, I will be the victim of racism. I know more about racism and the world than you think.
On personal level, I”ve had to contend with people telling me that I would never be anything because of my former rebel nature. I was a victim of a violent crime, dealt with may deaths of loved ones. Right now, I help my disabled mom and I just recently found out that my father( who walked out on us) was in the ICU in a diabetic coma and he’s on an oxygen tank( he has emphysema) The so-called medical “experts”, weren’t hopeful for his survival and I could have very well said ” thats reality”. Where he is right now ?AT HOME.He’s not out the woods,but he’s not living his life like a dead man. There was a song that the late Marvin Gaye had entitled ” Makes Me Want to Holler’ and certainly wanted to do that, but if wasn’t for my optimistic friends who told me to hold on and that I would over come it.If it wasn’t for their faith for me and my family, I would probably be in someone’s mental hospital.
My mom is from a small Georgia town. I’ve been going there since I was a baby .Most of the people she and my family dealt with were White and they were quite enlightened. It doesn’t mean that I’m denying any racists that exists in that town. WE just never experienced the kind of racism in her town. I went all over the place without incident. Not only that, I’ve been to many parts of small town/ big city Georgia and a lot of the East coast. I’m not some ignorant person who doesn’t accept reality. The only difference is that I don’t try to let obstacles stop me from living and being the best person. that I can be.
The people on here are not naive. They are just hopeful. It is evident that Obama is hopeful or otherwise he could have very well give to the words of McCain/Palin or the dog pound( those fools in the clips) Every time you see Obama, he always tell his crowd not to get cocky about his chances. So he’s a realist, but he’s not let anybody stop him from living his dream and I like that about him.I’m not looking for him to be a miracle worker (as I’ve once mentioned that it would have to take 15 years or more to get the economy back on track,) but he’s not giving up on it
I do not care what the polls say, what his naysayers say and what those pee-brain racists in those clips. I also don’t care how bad things look, I will always believe in him no matter what and for others who are enduring obstacles. There have been people from day one until now, who never seen their realized in their life, but they continued to believe no matter what.. I wonder how many times did Civil rights leaders become discouraged by being jailed, bombed, eaten by dogs and even killed by racists to help change Jim Crows policies. I’m quite sure they were, but you didn’t see them give up on their dreams. Today , we still live in racism, but I never had to walk in “colored” sections as my folks did.I’m just appreciative of that much.It didn’t come by people surrendering to the naysayers.
Life doesn’t always go our way.Reality is that I’m AA, I have been a victim of racism and more likely will continue to be victimized by it. I can either just surrender to the oppression or move on. I don’t want to surrender to societal pressure because I wouldn’t want them to win their game. No, not everybody want to see Obama as president,but I would never want to see him give up. For him to do such would mean that will give the racists what they want.